Editor’s Note: We are standardizing the format for daily COVID-19 case data updates. These articles may feel repetitious but we want each one to stand alone in terms of providing maximum context around the data. This is the update for Friday, June 26.
The state has announced that on Friday, July 3, Lebanon County will be advanced to the ‘green’ phase of the state’s tiered reopening plan
As of today, Lebanon County is the only of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties to remain in the ‘yellow phase.
“We will soon have all of our counties in green,” Gov. Tom Wolf said in a press release. “A milestone worth a cautious celebration of the hard work and collaborative spirit of Pennsylvanians. But we must remember that the restrictions that remain in the green phase will help us continue to enjoy the freedoms this phase allows for.”
The move had been signaled by the state on Thursday, June 25, when Department of Health spokesperson Nate Wardle said in an email to LebTown that, “We have started to see that data improve this week, and will use that in making decisions about the county potentially moving to green next week.”
In the ‘green’ phase, restaurants and bars may reopen indoor service at 50% capacity. Personal care services, such as nail parlors, salons, and barbershops, as well as gyms and spans, may also reopen by appointment only up to 50% capacity. Casinos, theaters, and malls may also now reopen at up to 50% capacity.
Businesses allowed to operate at 50% occupancy during ‘yellow’ may increase to 75% occupancy in the ‘green’ phase. Mask requirements will remain in place, and large gatherings of more than 250 people will still be prohibited.
The advancement to ‘green’ follows a meeting held Tuesday, June 23, between the Department of Health and county officials, including the Lebanon County Commissioners and Director of Emergency Services Bob Dowd.
“The department was pleased to discuss with Lebanon County officials the status of Lebanon County as part of the reopening process,” said Wardle.
The state is expected to provide additional help to Lebanon County in the form of contact tracing support and testing.
The number of new COVID-19 cases over the last 14 days per 100,000 residents is currently at 113 for Lebanon County.
In terms of relative comparisons, the current figure of 113 new COVID-19 cases over the last 14 days per 100,000 residents represents an increase of 66% compared to one month ago and a decrease of 16% compared to 14 days ago. This figure is 42% of the all-time high of 268 on April 21.
Gov. Tom Wolf had said originally that a county would need to show 50 or fewer new cases per 100,000 residents over a two week period to advance to the ‘yellow’ stage in his tiered reopening plan. After that point, according to the Governor’s plan, if overall risk remains mitigated for fourteen days, counties would be transitioned to the green phase.
Although this plan has been deemphasized by the state, with a number of counties having been advanced to ‘yellow’ ahead of meeting this metric, it remains at present a primary metric of comparison for LebTown.
LebTown is developing a new version of this metric weighted by test volume that we hope to introduce next week. This test volume weighted metric is intended to provide a clearer signal for the extent to which increased testing has driven increased case counts.
The state has also begun using a “risk-based decision support tool” to inform its response, with the tool described as one of many inputs used in the decision-making process. In the state’s county dashboard, Lebanon County is indicated as meeting four of four metrics as of today.
Daily new cases over last 14 days per 100,000 residents
For additional context, the southcentral region is at 63 new cases over the last 14 days per 100,000 residents, Dauphin County is at 119, Lancaster County is at 110, Philadelphia County is at 92, and the state overall is at 50.
The southcentral region includes Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lebanon, Mifflin, Perry, and York counties.
Read More: Spotlight PA’s statewide coronavirus tracker
The rise in new case counts generally corresponded with an increase in test volume. Lebanon County saw more tests reported in recent weeks than any time earlier in the pandemic, with the positive rate remaining lower than it did in those previous periods. Population testing at local nursing homes is thought to have been a primary reason for the increase in daily test figures, although expansion of tests through providers like CVS are another cause. Although test volume increased this month, the overall per capita test rate for Lebanon County remains lower than in other counties, such as Dauphin, Philadelphia, and Berks.
Although test volume has decreased somewhat in the last two weeks, Lebanon County COVID-19 test volume remains higher than historical average levels, with 1,092 tests conducted over the last seven days, compared to 1,170 tests in the seven days prior. In May, an average of approximately 540 tests were conducted every seven days.
Daily new cases and negative results as 7-day trailing average
Positive test rate as 7-day trailing average
The share of cases linked to nursing homes has steadily climbed through the pandemic, currently registering at approximately 1 out of every 6 cases being a nursing home resident or staff member. According to DOH data from 2017, Lebanon County is among the Pennsylvania counties with the highest number of nursing home beds per capita and the highest nursing home occupancy rates.
In terms of raw numbers, Lebanon County is now tracking at 1,300 cases of the novel coronavirus, according to current Pennsylvania Department of Health data, with 8,007 negative tests. (All figures in this article are based on DOH data unless otherwise noted.)
51 of those cases are probable cases, a designation made by healthcare providers based on symptoms and known exposures.
The Department of Health is reporting 43 deaths as of today, while Lebanon County is reporting 35. According to the county’s COVID-19 dashboard, the 35 deaths are linked to residents from Lebanon County municipalities as follows:
- City of Lebanon (2)
- Cleona Borough (1)
- Cornwall Borough (3)
- Myerstown Borough (16)
- North Cornwall Township (6)
- South Lebanon Township (5)
- Swatara Township (2)
Calculated as a percentage of confirmed cases, coronavirus currently has a mortality rate of 3.3% in Lebanon County – although due to still-limited testing as well as the occurrence of asymptomatic/undetected cases, the actual mortality rate may be lower than that. The mortality rate is however much higher in nursing homes and in general the virus should still be considered as extremely dangerous.
The Department of Health has recently begun reporting a total “recovered” percentage as part of its daily updates. A person is considered recovered if a case has not been reported as a death after more than 30 days past the date of the first positive test or the onset of symptoms. At present, the state says 78% of cases are considered recovered.
Daily new cases as 7-day trailing average
In late May, it was reported that the state is including positive antibody tests in its overall counts. Antibody tests are not broken out to date by the state in its county-level reporting. Negative antibody tests are not counted towards the state’s overall negative case count.
Neither WellSpan Health, Lebanon Veterans Affairs Medical Center, nor UPMC Pinnacle are actively conducting antibody testing in Lebanon County at this time, with Quest Diagnostics being the only firm known to offer this type of testing at present. However, tests could be performed on Lebanon County residents at facilities outside of the county and show up on state data, which is based on county of residence.
The state began breaking cases out by ZIP code in mid-April. Find the full dashboard here or see below for how cases looked across Lebanon County ZIP codes as of the last time the data was updated.
- 17003 (Annville) – 44 positive, 392 negative, seven probable
- 17010 (Campbelltown) – zero positive, 23 negative, zero probable
- 17016 (Cornwall) – 15 positive, 92 negative, zero probable
- 17026 (Fredericksburg) – 18 positive, 126 negative, 1-4 probable (redacted)
- 17028 (Grantville) – five positive, 106 negative, zero probable
- 17038 (Jonestown) – 46 positive, 324 negative, 1-4 probable (redacted)
- 17039 (Kleinfeltersville) zero positive, 1-4 negative (redacted), zero probable
- 17041 (Lawn) – zero positive, 1-4 negative (redacted), zero probable
- 17042 (Lebanon) – 404 positive, 2,564 negative, seven probable
- 17046 (Lebanon) – 458 positive, 1,908 negative, 17 probable
- 17064 (Mount Gretna) 1-4 positive (redacted), 43 negative, zero probable
- 17067 (Myerstown) – 177 positive, 788 negative, 1-4 probable (redacted)
- 17073 (Newmanstown) – 34 positive, 216 negative, 1-4 probable (redacted)
- 17078 (Palmyra) – 50 positive, 955 negative, nine probable
- 17087 (Richland) – 17 positive, 109 negative, zero probable
- 17545 (Manheim) – 125 positive, 931 negative, 1-4 probable
- 17963 (Pine Grove) – 33 positive, 322 negative, zero probable
- 19551 (Robesonia) – 13 positive, 181 negative, 1-4 probable (redacted)
- 19567 (Womelsdorf) – 56 positive, 180 negative, zero probable
Deaths from COVID-19 occur at a far higher rate in nursing home residents than among the general population.
Percentage of COVID-19 cases linked to nursing homes
Percentage of COVID-19 deaths linked to nursing homes
As of Friday, June 25, the state was reporting COVID-19 cases at seven nursing homes or personal care facility in the county, with 201 cases among residents and 39 cases among employees. According to DOH data, there have been 31 coronavirus-linked deaths at Lebanon County nursing homes or personal care facilities to date.
Here is nursing home data from the Department of Health as of Wednesday, June 24:
- Cedar Haven – 30 cases among residents, 24 cases among staff, 1-4 deaths
- Cornwall Manor – 11 cases among residents, five cases among staff, 1-4 deaths
- Coutryside Christian Community – Zero cases among residents, zero cases among staff, zero deaths
- Kadima at Campbelltown – Zero cases among residents, zero cases among staff, zero deaths
- Kadima at Palmyra – No data available
- Lebanon Valley Brethren Home – Zero cases among residents, zero cases among staff, zero deaths
- Lebanon Valley Home – Zero cases among residents, zero cases among staff, zero deaths
- ManorCare Health Services Lebanon – 45 cases among residents, 10 cases among staff, nine deaths
- Spang Crest Manor – Zero cases among residents, 1-4 cases among staff, zero deaths
- StoneRidge Poplar Run – 18 cases among residents, 6 cases among staff, zero deaths
- StoneRidge Town Centre – 65 cases among residents, 20 cases among staff, 18 deaths
DOH data and self-reported data do not always line up. The state has previously received criticism from nursing homes about its reporting methodology.
According to data released by StoneRidge, 17 deaths have occurred to date among residents at StoneRidge Town Centre in Myerstown. This figure has remained constant since May 29 with no new deaths or resident cases reported since that date.
Cedar Haven has also reported that it is dealing with an outbreak, with 30 confirmed cases and four deaths to date. On Monday, June 22, Cedar Haven said that it had not seen any new confirmed cases in the previous ten days.
“All of us at Cedar Haven offer our sincere and heartfelt condolences to their families and loved ones during this difficult time,” said the facility in the statement. LebTown previously reported on the efforts the facility was taking to fend off the virus.
Cedar Haven said that 26 staff members have tested positive to date, with all impacted staff said to be following strict quarantine requirements. A Cedar Haven spokesperson noted the facility has been following a strict mitigation protocol since mid-March, a twice daily survey and temperature screening for staff members, as well as a full telehealth program and restrictions on visitors in favor of video call visits.
Cedar Haven spokesperson Meg Farrington said that while the company couldn’t comment on the actions of any specific employees, staff members who do not comply with the policies and procedures would be subject to termination.
As of mid-April, WellSpan Health has made available a dashboard showing hospital-specific data. According to this dashboard, to date there have been 5,458 tests performed by WellSpan Health in Lebanon County, with 5,325 of those finalized and 133 pending. 862 tests (16.2%) were positive.
Currently there are 10 confirmed positive COVID-19 patients at WellSpan Good Samaritan Hospital.
WellSpan Good Sam in-patient census
According to WellSpan data, 12 deaths have occurred at WellSpan Good Samaritan Hospital as a result of coronavirus. WellSpan notes that this information is not based on patient residency and therefore may differ from DOH statistics.
The Department of Veterans Affairs also makes some information available regarding treatment of coronavirus at its facilities. As of today, the Lebanon VA Medical Center is providing care to 13 veterans who tested positive for COVID-19 as “active cases.” Active cases are defined as patients tested or treated at a VA facility for known or probable COVID-19 who have neither died nor reached convalescent status, which is itself defined as patients who are “either post-hospital discharge, or 14 days after their last positive test, whichever comes later.” 134 additional people (114 veterans and 20 employees) are considered convalescent cases at present. The facility has recorded 18 known deaths from the virus. These figures include residents of the VA’s long-term care Community Living Centers.
Here’s how Lebanon County’s confirmed case count has grown since the pandemic began.
Here’s how confirmed cases compare to overall tests in Lebanon County.
Here’s how the daily number of new cases in Lebanon County looks.
Here’s how that looks when negative tests are included.
Here is a chart that shows an estimated mortality rate based on a thirty day recovery period from the time of the state receiving a positive test result.
Here’s how Lebanon County compares to other counties, as well as the region and state, across three main metrics.
Postive Cases as Percent of Overall Population
Overall Tests as Percent of Overall Population
Positive Cases as Percent of Overall Tests
Frequently Asked Questions
Where are COVID-19 cases occurring in Lebanon County?
The state began releasing ZIP-level date on April 20 and intends to update this dataset daily. We now include it in the main update above. Some ZIP codes are missing at this point and the DOH says they are working on including them. Previously, the DOH had declined to share ZIP code level data, citing HIPAA concerns. LebTown editorialized on this issue and questioned the applicability of HIPAA in this regard. In April the state also presented counties with an offer for specific addresses (but not names) of COVID-19 patients to be shared with 911 centers, but Lebanon County has declined so far to enter that agreement, citing concerns shared by the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania that the agreement exposes the county to undue liability. Lancaster Newspapers has reported that the Lancaster County Commissioners share this view as well. In any event, that agreement, if ratified, would prevent county officials from sharing the data with the public.
How does Lebanon County look compared to other counties?
This is a complicated question and there’s no one answer to it. In our primary daily update, we track a few specific ratios:
- Postive Cases as Percent of Overall Population
- Overall Tests as Percent of Overall Population
- Positive Cases as Percent of Overall Tests
In general, Lebanon County will be doing well if we can continue to increase #1 while holding steady with #2. In that scenario, #3 would necessarily go down.
How does the state define a COVID-19 case?
Initially cases were only listed by the state if a positive test had been recorded. In April, the state began including probable cases as well. Here is how the state defines probable cases:
- Appropriate symptoms of COVID-19 and exposed to a high-risk scenario
- A positive antibody test and either symptoms or a high-risk exposure
- A fatal case with no known test result, but COVID-19 named as either the primary or a contributing cause of death
Probable cases were counted in the overall death count for some time, but the DOH reversed course on that decision. Additionally, positive antibody, or serology, tests are also being counted towards the positive case count. The state does not include negative antibody tests in its negative case data.
How many tests have been done in Lebanon County?
This is a complicated question. The state does not track, at least publicly, the total number of outstanding tests at the county level. WellSpan Health began disclosing hospital-specific data related to COVID-19 testing and treatment on April 22 and we include this information in our daily update above. One complication here is that just because a test was administered in a specific county, does not mean that the person who received the test resides in that same county. However the state has recently added the number of negative tests to its county-level data. By adding the negative tests number with the total cases number, we can estimate the total number of tests taken by Lebanon County residents, although this figure should be seen as a proxy and not an absolute or highly precise measure.
How many people have recovered from COVID-19?
The state began reporting a recovery count in late May and we have begun including this figure in our daily tracker updates.
How can Lebanon County and the Department of Health have two different numbers for COVID-19 deaths?
The Department of Health has said that fatal cases which are not reported through the state’s electronic system may not be captured in the official counts. Likewise, cases reported directly to the state may not also be reported to the county coroner. Read more on this subject in our article with Lebanon County Coroner Dr. Jeffery Yocum here. Additionally, the state and county have different criteria for registering a death – the state counts a death if the deceased tested positive for COVID-19 at the time of their death, whereas the county counts a death if COVID-19 symptoms were the primary cause of death.
How did you select which ZIP codes to list?
Some local ZIP codes include land in other counties as well as in Lebanon County. To be comprehensive we have included any ZIP code that falls even partly inside county lines. Note that Ono (17077), Quentin (17083), Rexmont (17085), and Schaefferstown (17088) are still not present in the source data.
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Full Disclosure: WellSpan Health is an advertiser on LebTown. LebTown does not make editorial decisions based on advertising relationships and advertisers do not receive special editorial treatment. Learn more about advertising with LebTown here.