Crime in Lebanon County was down by nearly 31 percent in 2023.
That same trend is true across Pennsylvania and the nation, according to criminal justice experts.
The Lebanon County percentage is derived by comparing data from court filings that year — as aggregated by the Administrative Office of Pennsylvania Courts (AOPC) — against the average number of court filings duringpre-pandemic years 2017 through 2019.
An official with AOPC told LebTown that the data for 2023 is unverified, meaning the percentage could change before those statistics are confirmed around the end of this year. AOPC is a state agency that gathers data to help court systems across Pennsylvania manage their caseloads.
While 2023 data compiled by AOPC may be raw, it is indicative of a statewide trend reflected in statistics collected by the Pennsylvania State Police. PSP statistics show crime is down across the commonwealth in recent years excepting 2020, which is considered an outlier by criminal justice experts since it was the first year of the pandemic.
State Police data also shows a drop in reported crimes in Lebanon County from 2022 to 2023 in cases submitted to the Universal Crime Reporting (UCR) website. Violent crimes are down between 16 to 20 percent while burglary and other non-violent crimes have lowered between 53 and 83 percent.
Lebanon County’s lower crime rate is similar to state and national figures, according to Terrance Alladin, an associate professor of criminal justice at Lebanon Valley College. Alladin said lower crime in Lebanon County aligns with a downward national and state trend that started decades ago.
“It started coming down in the ’90s and crime has continued to decline until we had COVID, the COVID years, and it went up a little bit but since then it has continued its decline,” said Alladin, who added there have been some years where crime has gone up but that the overall trend is on a downward trajectory.
While Lebanon County District Attorney Pier Hess Graf agreed with the 30-percent statistic in 2023, she said violent crimes in Lebanon County are holding steady or are up since she became district attorney on Jan. 31, 2020.
“We received statistics from AOPC indicating that there was approximately a 30 percent decrease in crime for 2023. When we looked at the types of crime that decreased, what we saw was there was a huge drop off in DUI-related offenses and misdemeanors, things such as retail theft, drug possession – those kinds of cases dropped off drastically,” said Hess Graf. “On the other side of things, the homicides are still at the same rate that they’ve been, which is elevated since I became DA.”
The number of other violent crimes are also maintaining their numbers or have gone up, according to Hess Graf.
“Shootings, stabbings, robberies, those types of things, are all elevated, and sexual assault and child abuse is maintaining,” she said. “What we saw is what I would say is a decrease in the more quote/unquote non-violent offenses but maintaining, if not a slight increase, in the violence-based offenses.”
Hess Graf supplied homicide figures for 2018 through 2023. LebTown also requested county-based numbers for specific violent crimes committed in Lebanon County, but as of publication, LebTown had not received those figures from the DA’s office.
The county’s homicide rate by year and the numbers as provided by Hess Graf are:
- 2018 – 4
- 2019 – 3
- 2020 – 2
- 2021 – 7
- 2022 – 5
- 2023 – 5
LebTown asked Hess Graf if any homicides were committed in Lebanon County during the first five months of the year, but she said she would have to check with chief county detective Jonathan Hess. A figure for 2024 homicides through May had not been shared as of publication.
LebTown staff writer Chris Coyle has been tracking 2024 murder-related charges in Lebanon County and said for this story that he believes there has been only one case where charges have been filed.
That shooting involved the discharge of a firearm inside a residence that claimed the life of Hector Pomales-Torres on April 12. Mariam Saadoune has been charged with involuntary manslaughter in that case.
Read More: Couple charged with manslaughter, reckless endangerment for fatal shooting
Involuntary manslaughter is the unintentional killing of someone while committing an unlawful or negligent act. It’s the lowest level of homicide because it doesn’t require intent.
On Monday, June 10, the Federal Bureau of Investigation released its Quarterly Uniform Crime Report (Q1) providing a preliminary look at national crime trends for January through March 2024 compared to January through March 2023.
That data also shows fewer crimes being charged nationally.
A comparison of data from agencies that voluntarily submitted at least two or more common months of data for January through March 2023 and 2024 indicates reported violent crime decreased by 15.2 percent.
Murder decreased by 26.4 percent, rape decreased by 25.7 percent, robbery decreased by 17.8 percent, and aggravated assault decreased by 12.5 percent. Reported property crime also decreased by 15.1 percent.
The Pew Research Center published a report in April showing that crime is down nationwide between 1993-2022, based on FBI data.
Violent crime fell 49 percent with large decreases in the rates of robbery (-74 percent), aggravated assault (-39 percent) and murder/non-negligent manslaughter (-34 percent). The study notes that “it’s not possible to calculate the change in the rape rate during this period because the FBI revised its definition of the offense in 2013.”
The FBI data reported by PRC also shows a 59 percent reduction in the U.S. property crime rate between 1993 and 2022, with big declines in the rates of burglary (-75 percent), larceny/theft (-54 percent) and motor vehicle theft (-53 percent).
Alladin noted that there is disagreement among criminal justice experts as to why crime is down, with the exception of a few hotspots, nearly everywhere. He prefaced his interview with LebTown by noting that his comments were strictly his own opinions and that his beliefs would differ with other criminal justice experts.
“There are various theories out there as to why crime has been declining, OK?” he said. “I can tell you if anyone tells you that they have put their finger on the button that says this is the reason that crime is declining, I’m telling you that they’re better than everyone else in the criminal justice field. Because the experts have conflicting theories.”
With that caveat stated, Alladin cited several factors he believes are contributing to fewer incidents. He said he believes technology is a prime factor in lowering the crime rate.
“One reason that experts and scholars say, and I tend to agree also, is the use of technology is increasing and the effectiveness of policing and efficiency of policing is increasing as a result of technology,” he said.
Alladin said crime mapping technology is one tool law enforcement uses to fight crime.
“Crime mapping looks at those areas where there are hot spots for where crime is occurring and then focuses resources on those hot spots,” he explained. “I strongly believe that is one of the reasons why crime is down.”
Another is the utilization of data-driven information known as CompStat, which is a policing technique launched in New York City in the 1990s and adopted by many urban centers. CompStat is a pro-active form of policing that focuses on trends and crime prevention.
Alladin said CompStat analyzes crime data and then law enforcement officials apply the appropriate departmental resources in those areas to combat crime. For example, if an area has a higher rate of violent crime, then personnel is placed in those locales for prevention purposes.
“They maximize their (human) resources through the use of technology,” he added.
Alladin stated there’s a theory in criminal justice that leads to the use of human resources in high-crime areas.
“The theory is that for a crime to occur there needs to be a motive, there needs to be a means and there needs to be an opportunity,” he said. “If there is a police officer present, that takes away the opportunity. The person has a motive to commit a crime, they have the means by which to commit that crime, but if the opportunity is not there, then they’re not likely to commit that crime.”
Hess Graf said she doesn’t believe technology deters criminals, but it does aid her department in filing charges and prosecuting crimes. She said her department has incorporated a 3-D crime scene scanner that immerses the jury and the investigator at a crime scene.
That information can be stored and used months or even years later, long after the crime scene itself has changed, which is a bonus for law enforcement, she added.
Hess Graf said technology that cracks phone passwords to obtain forensic evidence and 3D mapping are also used by her department in its fight against crime.
“It’s interesting that technology does greatly help us investigate a case, arrest a suspect more quickly and have more evidence against a suspect when we go to trial,” she said.
Lebanon police chief Bret Fisher wrote in an email to LebTown that there are various factors that have led to lower crime rates.
“The size of the community, officers still sort of know everyone or everyone in the public knows one of the officers. This also relates to the county,” he wrote.
He also noted that he agrees that technology has helped lower crime while adding “it is equally important to have professional properly trained officers to use that technology properly and to its greatest extent.”
Recent technological advances the city police department has or is upgrading includes in-car video, body cameras, mobile data terminals, in-car printers, a report management system, and multi-camera systems.
“Along with this technology we have also tried to make the public more aware of what is happening: Lebanon City’s CrimeWatch page has had the biggest impact on LPD,” wrote Fisher. “Tips from the public along with the information we can put out informing the public has been impactful.”
Another factor cited by Alladin noted that academic scholars have said an increase in law enforcement officers helps to lower crime rate, but he doesn’t necessarily agree.
“I am iffy on that,” said Alladin. “I believe it goes back to the quality of policing and not necessarily the quantity of policing. I feel better policing, better policing techniques and more effective policing are more effective methods.”
Hess Graf also disagreed.
“In all candor, I disagree pretty heavily with the fact that more police doesn’t necessarily mean less crime,” said Hess Graf. “There’s a caveat to that. If you have a number of inept, lazy and uncaring law enforcement officers on the street, then yeah, does their presence mean anything? Probably not.”
But those kinds of officers are an exception rather than the rule in Lebanon County, according to Hess Graf.
“What I’ve seen in this community is that there are a number of officers who go out every day on patrol and want to do the right things for the right reasons,” she said. “And they really do care about the community. They know who people are. … When you look at community-based policing, I think for your community to know who your officers are and feeling trusting in a time of panic or a time of need is a huge thing.
“In all candor, we need to be getting out of our cars, making contact with people and we need to be reassuring them that the men and women who are in your community are, in fact, here for you.”
Fisher feels both must compliment each other.
“Technology is great but it is expensive, first to purchase and second to maintain,” he wrote. “Investing in the officers that work at LPD I believe has the biggest impact. LPD is very fortunate to have great officers that work hard every day to serve Lebanon city residents and they appreciate the support they get from the community.”
As the use of crime-fighting technology increases, Hess Graf said more staff will be needed to analyze the information that technology delivers to law enforcement officials.
For example, she said that for the investigation of the triple homicide committed in 2023, it took the chief county detective and her eight hours a day over five days to review the information downloaded from the cell phone of one defendant.
“The one hindrance that technology gives is that you give you all that information that you can use to charge and convict, so as technology grows and information grows, the number of men and women we need to employ needs to grow,” said Hess Graf. “Otherwise, we’re not giving you a full and thorough investigation. My office has tried really hard to assume as much as that as possible between county detectives and the attorneys.”
For the triple homicide, she added that her team has spent many months on the case and are “still knee deep in it” as they go through voluminous amounts of technology-based data.
Hess Graf noted DUI and basic misdemeanor cases, which are down in Lebanon County, are the easiest to prosecute while violent crimes are the most labor-extensive for trial preparation. The DA’s office employs about 25 individuals.
As far as violent acts committed in Lebanon County, Hess Graf said that there is a trade off for the community for those criminal offenses.
“At least from a homicide and shooting/stabbing perspective, the one trade off for the community is that those typically aren’t stranger victims. Those are people who know each other or are a targeted victim or in a targeted circumstance,” said Hess Graf. “So when you look at it from a community safety standpoint, probably a drunk driver poses more of a threat to your average citizen just going about their day than just about everybody else. We saw a huge drop off in those (DUI) cases.”
Hess Graf said enforcement from roving patrols and the advent of treatment courts for alcohol and drug offenses would all be “good arguments why drunk driving offenses are down in Lebanon County.” She also stated, however, that she doesn’t know why people are choosing to take an Uber or not drive while under the influence.
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